’88上海市甲肝暴发流行的建模及分析

'88 Shanghai Type-A Hepatitis Eruptive Spread:Its Modeling and Analysis

本文首先对一般传染病模型作定性分析,提出了传染病流行的新闻值β及流行规模的预报式.然后考虑甲肝暴发流行的特点,提出了＇88上海市甲肝暴发流行系统动力力学(以下简称SD)模型,解决了甲肝潜伏期模拟的难题,得到了与实际吻合的仿真结果.通过仿真分析与定性分析,找到了本次流行中曾预报的第二峰未出现的原因;提出了本次大流行后上海市甲肝疫情的近期及长期展望;用统一的观点提出了关于甲肝周期性流行及暴发流行产生机制的假说.

In this paper, first of all, a qualitative analysis is done on a general infectious diseasc SD model, and a new epidemie threshold value and an epidemie scale forecasting formula are proposed. Then, in consideration of the properties of type-A hepalitis and its eruptive spread, the '88 Shanghai type-A hepatitis eruptive spread SD model is put forward. A lui of work in various aspects is done, for example: the problem to simulate the type-A hepatitis incubation period is solved practically; the simulation results fitted in with the real-ity are achieved; through simulation analysis and qualitative analysis, the reason that the predicted 2nd peak of this spread didn't appear is found out; the short-term and long-term prospects of Shaaghai type-A hepatitis situation are brought forward; hypotheses about the mechanisms of the periodic epidemie and the eruptive spread of type-A hepatitis are put forward. These results are imbued with guiding significance for prevention and control of the type-A hepatitis and other infectious diseases.