一种R&D项目选择模型及其决策方法与应用

A R&D Project Selection Model and Decision-Analysis Method with its Application

本文结合中国航空发动机强度专业的90年代预研论证及投资分配强度,建立了一种受资源约束的R&D项目选择模型,它是一个随机规划模型且考虑了备选项目问的效益相关性。此外,针对这一模型,设计了一种随机决策方法。利用这一方法对模型进行决策分析可得到决策者希望目标水平下的最佳满足度和最佳可行度项目选择方案。应用于实际,效果较好。本文设计的决策分析方法能够被推广用来处理多随机目标和多随机约束的风险决策问题。

Based on the problem of selecting interdependent projects of strength in Aircraft Engine Research Program in China, which consists of 23 project candidates, this paper develops a R&D projects selection model with resource constraints, which is a stochastic programming model and considers the benefit inter-dependant between the project candidates. By analyzing and solving the model by means of the decision-analysis method designed in this paper, which can be extended to deal with the problem with multiple stochastic objectives and constraints, the project selection plan with the optimal satisfied degree and feasible degree with respect to the decisionmaker's aspiration objective level can be got.