铁路运营线路能力系统动态模型的研究

A Research of System Dynamics Model in Railway Carrying Capacity

本文从系统观点出发,充分考虑我国铁路网上各种线路能力的合理负荷、牵引机车结构与线路结构的协调、线路维修能力、重轨等因素对铁路各种线路运输能力的影响,运用系统动力学的模拟方法,建立了运输能力与运输需求相适应的能力平衡和线路维修能力的供需平衡.对于系统动力学模型中的参数估计,运用灰色系统理论进行量化,经检验表明可提高预测精度.根据铁路建设不超越发展时期的财政支持,多层次的线路技术结构适应不同运输强度的需要,提出我国在本世纪末铁路线路能力达到的目标及其发展战略措施,以供决策层参考.

In this paper, from the systematic view point, SD simulation method is adopted to establish the balance between carrying capacity and transportation demand, and the supply and demand balance in rail maintenance capacity. We fully considered the influences to various rail carrying capacities by many factors such as the reasonable load of various tracks of our railway network, the coordination detween the structure of locomotives and the line structure, line maintenance capacity, heavier rail, etc. Here Grey System theory is used to estimate the parameters in the SD model, since test shows that forecasting accuracy could be improved by this approach. The goal of our country's railway carrying capacity in this century is proposed for decision-making reference. Considering that railway construction should be developed within the limitation of financial support, and that different levels of line structure should be compatible with the different demand of traffic intensities.