中国利率期限结构分析

Interest Rate Structure in China

我国利率期限结构呈现出一层显式结构和四层隐式结构。以法定利率表为基础形成第一层利率期限结构；经过“就高不就低”计算方式的较正形成第二层利率期限结构；经过保值贴补率校正形成第三层利率期限结构；经过利息税扣除使利率期限曲线产生非平行下移从而形成第四层利率期限结构；最后，须将单利期限结构转换为复利利率期限结构，从而形成第五层利率期限结构。在此基础上提出了改革中国利率期限结构的政策建议。

The actual term structure of interest rates in China is quite different from what it appears.We discuss four modifications to the official interest rate.The first is brought out by the savings policy that the savings rate takes the highest in the savings period;the second is the inflation premium;the third is the interest tax,and the fourth arises as a result of the adjustment of compounding methods.Empirical evidence shows that the actual term structure is consistent with the theory of pure expectation,albeit in a lagged and passive way.Some policy suggestions for reforming the term structure are put forward.