中国资本外逃与外国直接投资关系的实证分析(1984—1999)

The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Capital Flight in China (1984——1999)

本文分别采用相关分析、因子分析和因果分析三种计量分析方法，分析了中国资本外逃与外国直接投资之间的关系。本文的研究表明，中国资本外逃与外国直接投资之间存在着显著性很强的正相关关系，并且因子分析与因果分析的结果也支持这一结论，说明驱动中国资本外逃的入要因素不是投资环境恶化。中国资本外逃在很大程度上是由于对内资和外资采取的差别政策待遇所引起的，并据此提出了相应的政策启示。

This paper applies correlation,factor and causality analytical tools to in- vestigate the relationship between foreign direct investment and capital flight in China.The correlation analysis indicates that the relationship between them is significantly positive.In the meantime the results of factor and causality analysis support the conclusion.This means that the driving cause of capital flight in China is the unbalanced policies toward domestic capital and foreign capital.Some policy implications are discussed.