供求结构与配套制度:山东住房消费信贷的实证研究

The Supply-Demand Structure and the Supporting Mechanism:A Case Study of Housing Loans in Shandong Province

本文通过对山东省住房消费信贷的抽样调查 ,实证研究住房贷款快速发展的基本动因和制约因素。文章认为 ,尽管住房信贷正逐步成为商业银行的业务增长点 ,但是考虑到居民可支配收入的增长情况和空置商品房数量 ,住房信贷面临一定的潜在风险。文章据此进一步指出 ,当前发展住房信贷的关键在于税费改革、住房二级市场建设、公积金制度完善、社会担保体制确立等一系列配套制度建设。

This paper empirically studies the housing credit in Shangdong Province, concluding the push and constraint factors. It is shown that some potential risks can be signaled through the slow-down growth of households' dispensable income and unsold house, though housing credit is dramatically expanding. Some suggestions are put forward, including tax and fee reform, secondary market development and public provision system perfection and social guarantee mechanism establishment.