中国转型期的投资:一个模型的应用

Investment in China under Transition:a Model Application

利用哈罗德—多马模型实证分析了中国转型期的投资问题 ,得出了如下的基本结论 :(1)要使我国的经济增长率保持在 7%的水平上 ,居民储蓄率至少应达到 2 0 %左右 ;(2 )投资结构与方向是否合理 ,将影响我国的经济增长速度 ,因此 ,不宜过分渲染对投资规模的控制 ,而不顾投资的结构与方向。

Applying Harrod-Domar model to the investment in China under transition for empirical analysis produces the following conclusions: (1) in order to keep the country's growth rate at more than 7%, household savings must be around 20%; (2) whether the direction and structure of the investment are reasonable will exert influence on the speed of the country's economic growth. So the control of investment size should not be overstressed without paying enough attention to the structure and direction of investment.