北京夏季用电量与气象条件的关系及预报

Relationship between Power Consumption and MeteorologicalConditions during the Summer in Beijing City and Its Forecast

利用 1 998年和 1 999年北京市夏季逐日用电量和气象要素资料进行逐步回归建立统计关系 ,分别给出了北京市夏季逐日用电量 (最高、最低和平均耗电量 )与气象条件的统计回归方程和预报方程。统计结果和回归曲线表明 :每天的实际用电量与天气条件有密切的关系 ,尤其是对温度的变化最为敏感 ,与相对湿度、风和日照时数、降水也有一定的相关性。

A statistical relationship between daily electricity depletion and meteorological elements in Beijing city is established by using the real power consumption data and meteorology data during the Summer of 1998 and 1999. Statistical and forecasting equations of daily power consumption including the maximum, the minimum and the average value are achieved, respectively. The results show that the power consumption had a very close relationship to the weather condition, especially it is very sensitive to the temperature, and then to the relative humidity, wind, sunshine duration and as well as the precipitation.