厄尔尼诺事件对河南省降水的可能影响

Possible Effect of El Nio on Precipitation in Henan Province

本文采用小波变换方法分析了近 5 0年来赤道东太平洋月海温距平序列和河南省月降水量距平序列的多层次时间尺度结构 ,对厄尔尼诺事件和河南降水的周期变化规律进行了对比分析 ,并讨论了厄尔尼诺对河南降水的可能影响。结果表明 ,厄尔尼诺事件对河南降水有一定程度的影响 ;表现为厄尔尼诺年大多对应河南雨涝年 ,而反厄尔尼诺年大多对应干旱年 ;NINO海区SST的冷暖结构和河南降水的旱涝变化之间具有较好的对应关系 ,而且两者都存在准 2年和 4～

The multi-time-scale structures of monthly SST anomaly series in eastern equatorial Pacific and monthly precipitation anomaly series in Henan province are analyzed using the Marr and Morlet wavelet transforms method. The possible influences of El Nio events on precipitation of Henan are discussed by comparing the period variation of SST cold or warm structures with dry or wet changes of Henan precipitation. The results show that the precipitation in Henan is related to El Nio events. The waterlogging and drought in Henan usually occur in correspondence with the periods that El Nio events occur. SST in Nio areas and precipitation in Henan all have the period variations of quasi-biennial and 4~8 years .