矿山地震震级的极值分布

Magnitude Extreme Distribution of Mining Tremor

结合前人的研究成果，推导了矿山地震震级极值的冈贝尔Ⅰ型分布，给出了其参数 确定方法．在简要介绍老虎台矿矿山地震活动的构造及物理背景后，将震级极值分布应用于老 虎台矿月最大震级的概率预测实践结果表明，用这种方法预测的月最大震级概率分布与实际 记录的矿震月最大震级分布一致．

Based on the other reseachers' work, the Gumbel Ⅰ distribution of mining tremors' extreme magnitude is derivated.The determination method of the distribution parameters is also developed. After bri-efly introducing the tectonic structure and physical background of mining tremors in Laohutai coal mine, the magnitade extreme distribution is applied to the practice of probabilistic prediction of monthly largest magni-tudes at the Laohutai coal mine.The result shows that the predicted probability distribution of monthly largest magnitudes consists well with the distribution of practical record of monthly largest magnitudes.