油气管道的故障树分析

Fault Tree Analysis of Oil and Gas Pipeline

管道失效主要有泄漏和断裂两种模式,应用故障树分析法(FTA)对泄漏和断裂的基本原因进行了分析,建立了管道失效的故障树。采用下行法(Fussel算法)求出了系统的52个全部最小割集,给出了故障树顶事件失效概率的计算公式和底事件重要度分析表达式。定性与定量地探讨了引起管道失效的基本原因。通过对系统的故障树以及最小割集的分析,发现引起管道失效的主要原因有第三方破坏、腐蚀、误操作和材料缺陷,提出了相应的改善措施。故障树分析的结果可为老管道的维护和新管道的设计提供理论指导。

Fault tree analysis is an effective way to analyze the safety and reliability of complex system. Using this method,this paper discusses the failure of pipelines. The fault tree of oil and gas pipelines is established by considering two major failure modes of pipelines: leak and rupture. All the minimal cut sets (MCS) are achieved by Fussel calculation. They are consisted of 25 first order MCSs, 6 third MCSs and 21 fourth MCSs; The basic factors resulting pipelines in failure are investigated through the qualitative and quantitative analyses. By analyzing the fault tree of pipelines and its minimal cut sets,it is found that external interference from the third party,corrosion,incorrect operation and material defects are the major reasons to cause the failure of pipelines. And this paper gives some relevant measurements to improve the pipelines. The results of fault tree analysis show that this method can provide some theoretical guides for the maintenance of old pipelines and design of new pipelines.