基于ARMA模型的电力系统负荷预测方法研究

Research on Method of Power System Load Forecasting Based on ARMA Model

采用加权最小二乘法参数估计方法 ,得到应用于电力系统日负荷预测和月负荷预测的ARMA模型。实际预测结果表明 ,用ARMA模型进行电力负荷预测是非常有效的。尤其是采用加权最小二乘估计的ARMA模型 ,预报精度更高。

In this paper,the method of weighted least square estimate is proposed to construct ARMA model, which can be applied in power system load forecasting. Real forecasting results shows that to use ARMA model is very effective. Especially ARMA model with weighted least square estimate is good performance in forecas- ting accuracy.