花粉浓度预报

Pollen Concentration Forecast

重点探讨气候和植物对空气中花粉浓度的影响。通过对天津市河西区气象铁塔站、和平区南京路站 1999年 4月～ 2 0 0 0年 10月花粉观测资料分析表明 :一年中花粉浓度有明显的周期性和季节性。经统计分析得出 :当日花粉实况、气温日较差、日平均气温距平与未来 2 4小时花粉浓度相关显著 ,用其作因子分别建立了春季、夏秋逐日花粉浓度预报方程 ,复相关系数分别为 0 73和0 76 ,均通过F检验。同时利用降水、风、云量等气象要素以及植物物候加以订正 ,作花粉浓度预报效果很好。

The effect of climate and plant on pollen concentration in the air is discussed. Based on the analysis of the observed data of Hexi district meteorological mast station and Nanjing Road of Heping district meteorological station between April,1994 and Oct.2000,it is found that the change of cyclical and seasonal nature of pollen concentration is clear in a year.The correlation of the observed pollen number in that day,daily range of temperature,and departure of mean daily temperature with number of pollen concentration in the next 24 hours is significant. Using these factors, predictive equations of pollen concentration day by day for Spring, Summer and Autumn were established, respectively. The multiple correlation coefficients of the equations are 0 73 and 0 76, respectively, and they have passed F test.At the same time,the equations are modified by the essentialy factors of precipitation, wind, cloudage as well as phenophase of plant and the forecast accuracy is satisfactory.