开滦矿区煤矿安全相关性分析及趋势预测

Analysis and tendency prediction of coal mine safety relativity in Kailuan Mining Area

通过对开滦集团公司井下伤亡历史数据的时间序列分析和对百万吨死亡率与井下生产机械化水平的相关性分析 ,实现了对该集团公司未来百万吨死亡率波动范围的合理预测 ;同时 ,对机械化水平的提高对于煤矿安全状况的改善所作贡献进行了定量分析。

With a time series analysis on underground mine historical data of miners′ death and injured and the relativity analysis on the death rate per million ton coal production and the underground mine production mechanization level, the paper has a rational prediction on a wave range of future death rate per million ton coal production. Meanwhile, the paper has a quantitative analysis to the contribution by the mine safety status approved by the mechanization.