城市轨道交通客流预测的评估和抗风险设计

Evaluation and Anti-risk Design of the Flow Prediction in Urban Mass Transit

客流预测是轨道交通建设的重要基础工作。阐述了客流预测的目的和内容 ,分析了客流预测的难度和风险 ,提出了可信性评价的要点 ,对客流预测提出了波动范围的要求。采取了面对现实的观点 ,创建了抗风险设计的理念 ,对客流预测的风险做了有限性和突破性的分析 ,提出了抗风险的适应性和转移性的措施 ,使客流预测的数据与运营能力设计之间具有较大适应弹性。对于轨道交通的运营组织 ,采取分期设计很重要 ,尤其是应分别确定初、近期和远期的车辆编组和行车密度 ,这有利于抗风险设计。

Flow prediction is an important item in the construction of rail transit. This article illustrates the objective and contents of the prediction, analyses the difficulties and risks, poses the essentials of the reliability evaluation, and proposes a fluctuation for the prediction. Based on the real situation, this paper establishes a theory of anti-risk design by analying the limitation and breakthrough of the risks in flow prediction, then puts forward some fitting and transferable measures to protest the risks, which can add the flexibility between the prediction and the operation capacity designed. The author holds that, for the operation in urban mass transit, it is beneficial to design by stages, especially to determine the train-frame and driving frequency in the initial-stage, the short-term as well as the long-term separately.