中国实际经济周期:一个基本解释和理论扩展

Real Business Cycle in China: A Basic Model and its Extension

最近几年 ,中国货币供应量增加较快 ,但经济增长速度却稳中见降 ,货币供应的一部分流入股市。本文运用外生劳动力周期模型对中国经济周期波动的原因给出一个基本解释 ,采用随机动态一般均衡的方法 (即实际经济周期方法 )建立中国货币经济周期模型 ,在这个分析框架下考察中国经济增长与货币指标之间的关系 ,股价变动与货币供应量、贷款等金融指标的关系。研究发现 ,用技术冲击这一因素可以解释 76 %的中国经济波动 ,按影响由大到小排列 ,与中国经济周期波动关系密切的金融指标分别为 M2 、基础货币、M1,与股价变动率关系密切的金融指标分别为M2 、金融机构贷款和基础货币。

Although with strong monetary expansion, China's economic growth rate slumped and part of money supply flooded into stock market in recent years. Adopting an exogenous labor real business cycle model, this paper offers a basic explanation to China's business cycle. Introducing stochastic dynamic general equilibrium method, we construct a monetary business cycle model and investigate the relationship between China's economic growth and monetary aggregation, the connections among stock price volatility, monetary balance and bank credits. The results suggest that technology shock can account for 76 percent of China's economic fluctuation. Ranked by degree of co-relation, monetary variables most closely related to China's business cycles are M2, money base and M1 ; meanwhile, variables most closely related to China's stock price volatility are M2, bank credits and money base.