马尔柯夫模型在四湖地区湿地景观变化研究中的应用

The Application of the Markov Model on the Dynamic Change of Wetland Landscape Pattern in Four-Lake Area

在遥感和地理信息系统的技术支持下 ,将马尔科夫过程模型引入到湿地景观格局分析和预测中来 ,利用 1990年和 1996年 2个时期的卫星影像来分析四湖地区湿地景观格局的动态变化。从马尔可夫过程预测湿地景观结构变化分析 ,在现有的人类作用强度的情况下 ,四湖地区湿地景观格局可达到一个相对稳定的状态 ,即天然水域 9.2 7% ,人工水域 11.2 3% ,滩地 0 .6 7% ,水田 5 1.93% ,非湿地农业区 18.2 1% ,城乡区 8.6 9%。

In this paper, we introduce the Markov model into the trend analysis and forecast about the dynamic changes of the wetland landscape in the Four Lake area was introdiced in this paper. By using the remote sensing and GIS methods and Markov model for analyzing the 1990's and 1996's satellite images, research about the dynamic changes of the wetland was taken. The results showed that the wetland landscape pattern structure will reach relatively steady state at the future period, that is, natural water area was 9.27%, man made water area 11.23, bottomland 0.67%, paddy field 51.93%, non wetland area 18.21%, and urban and rural area 8.69%.