以期权理论为基础重构企业资本预算方法体系

A new system of capital budgeting based on option theory

资本预算是企业实施全面预算的重要组成部份，其预算结 果的准确性对企业的持续经营至关重要，传统的资本预算方法已不能满足当前充斥风险和不 确定性的市场的需要，而以期权理论为基础重构资本预算方法体系在理论上是可能的，在技 术上也是可行的，它是对传统资本预算方法的扬弃，寻找并正确计量企业资本预算项目中的 隐匿期权是重构以期权理论为基础的资本预算方法体系的关键。

This article includes four parts. 1)capital budgeti ng as an important component of the comprehensive budgeting; 2) the inadequacy o f the traditional capital budgeting system in facing the present market requirem ents; 3) the feasibilities of estoblishing a new system of capital budgeting bas ed on the option theory; 4)the calculation of hiding options being the critical point in the establishment of a new system of capital budgeting.