摘要
介绍了作者近年来关于气候系统可预报性理论研究的一些工作,包括:非线性最快增长扰动理论以及在气候预测的可预报性研究中的应用;从一个新的角度研究了2类可预报性问题,并提出可预报性的3类子问题;根据计算不确定性原理,讨论了模式可预报性与机器精度的关系;探讨了可预报性与时空尺度的关系,建立了可预报性的相对观。
Some theoretical studies on the predictability of climate system are introduced in this paper. The theory of nonlinear fastest growing perturbation is applied to investigate climate predictability. Two kinds of predictability problems are studied from a new view, and three types of predictability sub-problems are present. In light of the computational uncertainty principle, the rela tions between predictability of model and machine precision are revealed. Base on the relationship be tween predictability and spatial-temporal scale a theroy of relativity of predictability is introduced.
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
2002年第2期227-235,共9页
Climatic and Environmental Research
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目G1998040901
G1998040910
国家自然科学基金资助项目49905007
40023001
40075015
中国科学院创新项目KZCX2-208共同资助
关键词
气候系统
可预报性
非线性
扰动
时空尺度
天气预报
climate system
predictability
nonlinear fastest growing perturbation
spatio-temporal scale
