我国短期气候动力预测模式系统的研究及试验

Research and Experiments of the Dynamical Model System for Short-Term Climate Prediction

气候和气候异常对我国的国民经济发展具有重大影响,为提高短期气候预测的准确率,研究动力气候模式短期气候预测新技术至关重要。通过近5年的努力,建立了一套由月动力延伸预报模式,海气耦合的全球气候模式(AGCM+OGCM+海冰+高分辨率印度洋一太平洋海盆模式),区域气候模式季和年际尺度的业务动力模式组成的系统。初步把我国的短期气候预测水平由经验统计方法提高到定量和客观分析的水平上。在此基础上,已建成了一个具有物理基础的统计方法与气候动力模式相结合的综合气候预报系统。

Climate and climate abnormity have important influence on the economical development. In order to improve the accuracy of the short-term climate prediction, it is important to study the new technology of dynamical model system for short-term climate prediction. Sponsored by the National Key Project 'Studies on Short-Term Climate Prediction System in China', after 5-year research, the dynamical operational model system has been developed and consists of monthly dynamical extended-range forecast model, coupled ocean-atmosphere model (AGCM + OGCM + sea ice model + high resolution Pacific-Indian Ocean circulation model) and regional climate model. It is primary that the short-term climate prediction is developed from experience statistical level to quantificational and objective level. A synthetical climate prediction system that has combined the statistical method based on physics with the climate dynamical model had been developed.