电力负荷组合预测权重的确定

Determination for Weight Number of Combined Forecasting Models

由于电力系统负荷具有很多不确定因素 ,用单一预测模型进行预测时 ,其预测精度不高。为提高预测精度 ,完善预测方法 ,提出组合预测模型 ,对电力系统负荷预测的多种预测模型进行组合优化 ,用最小二乘法确定其权重 ,得到权重的解析表达式 ,使组合预测理论进一步得到完善。

Because of too many undefined factors in the electric power systems,the forecasting results using the single signal forecasting model are unsatisfactory.To get a better accuracy and improve the forecasting method,the combined forecasting model is proposed.By using the LMS method,the weight number expression is gained.