我国居民消费变动与经济增长的实证分析

A positive analysis of the interrelationship between residents′consumption changes and economic growth in China

消费需求对于我国经济增长及景气周期具有决定性影响 ,既是拉动经济增长的最大动力 ,又是防止经济萧条的稳定力量。近几年来政府通过扩大投资启动经济的政策效果不尽如人意的主要原因在于居民消费倾向明显下降。导致居民消费倾向下降的主要因素是各项社会保障制度同时出台 ,使居民预期支出不稳定。启动新一轮景气周期的政策重心应是提高居民消费倾向 ,激活消费需求。一方面 ,要认真研究居民消费心理和消费行为 ,制定消费政策并将其纳入经济增长长期政策之中 ;另一方面 ,政府应加大对社会保障资金的支持力度 ,改变居民对未来前景的不确定预期 。

Consumer demand has a decisive influence on China′s economic growth as well as business cycles. Apart from acting as a most powerful impetus to draw the economy, it serves as a stabilizing force to protect the economy from the hazard of depression. In recent years, however, the obvious decline of residents′ propensity to consume has become the main cause of the somewhat dissatisfactory results of the state policy to enliven China′s economy by expanding investment. Several social insurance policies coming out at the same time make residents′ expected expenditure unstable; it is the main cause of declining of residents′ propensity to consume. The core of the policy that helps to start up a new cycle of business is expected to help upgrade the propensity to consume and stimulate the consumer demand. First, we should establish a consumer policy and bring it into line with the long term policies of economic growth through researching into residents′ consumer psychology and consumer behavior. Second, Governments should give more support to social insurance benefits in order to change residents′ indefinite expectation and normalize residents′ propensity to consume gradually.