重庆市贸易收入结汇预测模型研究

Research on the Forecasting Model of Foreign Exchange Income in Chongqing

为加强对外汇收入结汇的监管 ,根据重庆贸易收入结汇统计数据的特点 ,分别建立了灰色模型和自回归模型 ,研究了地方中观层次贸易外汇收入结汇预测问题。从不同的角度反映了重庆贸易收入的变动情况 ,并从短期和中期 2个方面对贸易收入进行有效地预测。在此基础上提出了加强企业和银行外汇结汇监管的相关建议和组合

It is very imporfand to monitor the exchange of the foreign trade income when the convertibikty of current account has been realied.In order to enforce the monitoring of the settlement of foreign exchange income in Chongqing, Grey Model and Auto-Regression Model have been built based on the characteristics of local data, which focus on the forecasting of the local settlement of foreign exchange of foreign trade income. From different aspects, these two models efficiently forecast the variation, in short run and middle run, of the exchange of foreign trade income in Chongqing. Based these analyses, this paper suggests the combination of two models and enforcing the monitoring of the settlement of foreign exchange of cooperation of enterprises and banks.