改进的相应涨差模型及其在洪水预报中的应用

Improved corresponding rising difference model and its application to rea-time flood forecasting

根据圣维南方程组的连续方程 ,在原有相应涨差模型的基础上 ,推导出一种新的河道实时洪水预报相应涨差模型 .新模型的参数只有一个 ,使用具有时变遗忘因子的递推最小二乘算法在线识别 .在作业预报时 ,只需一个测站的资料 .该模型运用于长江中游河段 。

According to continuity equation of Saint_Venant, and based on the old corresponding rising difference model, the paper developed a new model of channel flood realtime forecasting. It has only one parameter, which estimated by recursive least square estimation with variable forgetting factors. The new model needs data of only one survey station. The authors applied it to middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the results are satisfactory.