对新增长理论的改进与发展

Improvement and Development of New Growth Theory

在索洛的新古典增长理论中 ,技术进步是作为外生变量 ,其缺陷是没有正确反映经济增长和技术进步二者之间的内在联系。以罗默的“研发模型”和卢卡斯的“人力资本模型”为代表的新增长理论 ,则克服了这一缺点 ,把技术进步和人力资本积累看作内生变量 ,然而新增长理论不足之处是它把储蓄率和人口增长率当作外生变量。本文在分析经济增长和储蓄率、人口增长率之间的内在变化规律基础上 ,把储蓄率和人口增长率当作内生变量 ,并分析经济增长的变化规律。

Solow neoclassical growth theory considers technological progress as exogenous, but the shortcoming is the theory doesn't reflect correctly the correlation between economic growth and technological progress. On the contrary, New Growth Theory, typically represented by Romer's R&D model and Lucas's human capital model, takes account of technological progress and human capital accumulation as endogenous, but its shortcoming is to take saving rate and population growth rate as exogenous. Analysing the correlation between economic growth and saving rate and population growth rate, this paper takes saving rate and population growth rate as endogenous and analyses the law of economic growth.