褐飞虱种群生命系统管理模型的研究

Studies on management model of population life system of brown planthopper

本文引用太湖稻区单季晚稻褐飞虱种群动态和为害损失研究的结果,以车厢法(boxcar train)原理为基本框架,建立褐飞虱种群动态模拟模型,并结合Bellman的动态规划最优化原理组建褐飞虱种群生命系统管理模型。经川沙县1984—1989年预测圃资料验证,模型模拟值与田间实查值相当吻合,累积虫量误差在1.4％—16.3％之间,平均11.4％;种群管理的模型决策与实际经验决策的准则不同,造成两种决策结果的差异。

According to the survey data of the population dynamics of brown planthopper (BPH) (Nilaparvata lugens Stl) in single late rice fields in Tanhu Lake district of Jiangsu province, the simulating model of population dynamics of BPH was obtained with the frame of boxcar train model presented by Goudriaan (1973). Further, based on the population dynamic model, economic losses of rice and cost of control, the management model of BPH was established with the Bellman dynamic programming method. Simulation results show that the models can well describe the population dynamic process according to the verification with observations of BPH in Chuansha county from 1984 to 1989. The error and average error of accumulative, population are 1.4%—16.3% and 11.4% respectively. Because of the difference of standards in judgement, the results of two methods are different between experimental and optimal decisions.