黑龙江垦区农业机械总动力预测与分析

Prediction and Analysis on The Total Powers of Agriculture Machine in Heilongjiang Land Reclamation System

本文对黑龙江垦区农业机械总动力进行了预测分析。利用灰色系统理论,建立了灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,利用历史数据对农业机械总动力进行了预测,并进行了分析,为农业机械化发展规划提供依据。通过定性分析和建立GM(1,1)预测模型进行定量预测,预测结果为黑龙江垦区到2005和2010年末农业机械总动力将达到366.9和404.6万千瓦。认为黑龙江垦区农业机械将向着科技含量高、通用性好、经济性好、高生产率方向发展。

The total powers of agriculture machine in Heilongjing land reclamation system were predicted and analyzed in this article. The GM(1,1) model of gray system theory and some history data were used. It is a key for mechanization of farming development programming. According to qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the total powers will achieve 366.9×104 Kw in 2005 and 404.6×104 Kw in 2010. Moreover, the directions of agriculture machine development are high level of science and technology, all-purpose, economical and productivity.