股市泡沫的中外对比和缩减对策

An International Comparison of Stock Bubble and Measures for Contracting It

指出目前我国股票泡沫一些算法的错误;指出股票的泡沫就是股票价格偏离股票价值的程度;计算中外股票泡沫并进行对比分析;提出缩减中国股市泡沫的对策。主要结果:九年来中国流通A股的相对泡沫高于东京、纽约;如果非流通股全部上市,则居于东京、纽约之间;2000年年底中国流通A股的绝对总泡沫为10400亿元,成为一大隐患;股指期货交易可使股市成为“双向”市场,从而化解缩减股市泡沫的阻力。

This paper points out mistakes i n som e present calculations of the stock b ubble in China,points out that the st ock bubble is the deviation of stock pric e to stock value,calculates and comp ares and analyses the stock bubbles o f China and some other countries,and put s forward so me measures for contracting the stoc k bubble in China.The study r esults s how that the relative value of the bubble of Chinese circul ating A sto cks has been higher than th at of Tokyo stock market and of New York stock marke t for 9years,that the relative value o f the bubble of Chinese A stocks would have been between that of Tokyo stock market and of New York stock market if all their non-circulating stocks were marketed,and that the absolute value of the bub ble of Chinese circulating A stocks was 1040billio n RMB yuan in total at the end of the year 2000and it has become a big hidden danger.The result s also show that the deal in sto ck index futures can turn the stock ma rket int o a two-way market and reduce the resistance on contracting the stock bubble.