基于云模型的定性预报模型及其在麦长管蚜预报中的应用

The Qualitative Forecasting Model Based on the Cloud Model and Its Application in Macrosiphum avenae

云模型是用语言值表示的某个不确定概念与其定量表示之间的定性转换模型。论述了基于云模型的农业害虫定性预测模型的建模方法 ,并探讨了该模型在麦长管蚜发生期预测中的应用。将麦长管蚜发生期预测过程拟成一个不确定控制系统 ,将作为系统输入的预测因子和系统输出的预测对象均以定性概念表示 ,并给出了输出信息的综合决策方法。

A new mathematical representation of linguistic concepts which is called cloud model, together with its theory, is presented in this paper. With the new cloud model and a virtual rule engine, a novel uncertainty control system was created. The modeling method of forecasting and its application in forecasting the occurrence period of the Macrosiphum avenae were also anaysed and discussed. And the decision making method of the output information was presented.