世界LNG贸易即期化现象分析与展望

An Analysis of and Outlook on the Spot Trading Phenomenon in World LNG Trade

近年来世界LNG贸易中出现了即期化的新趋势,引起了世界LNG行业的重视。通过分析影响LNG市场贸易即期化的主要因素,对世界LNG市场的未来发展进行了展望,并结合有关国家的经验对我国进口LNG项目提出了建议:我国进口LNG,除了签订长期合约以保证稳定供应外,可考虑用一些即期、短期合约作为必要的补充,以解决在需求量预测中可能存在的误差问题,并规避因气源故障无法保证供气的风险;在设计接收设施时,要考虑到从多气源购气的设备兼容问题;在进口LNG时,应考虑由我国控制船队,以保证进行即期和短期购买时的运力使用,同时也可以利用船队的剩余运力从事第三方运输服务,以获得更大的利益。

I n recent years, world LNG trade has exhibited a new trend - spot trading, which has drawn the attention of the world LNG industry. This article analyzes the main factors influencing spot trading of LNG, forecasts the future development of world LNG trade, and puts forward recommendations on China's LNG imports based on other experiences. Besides long-term contracts guaranteeing stable supply, Chinese LNG importers should also consider spot trading and short-term agreements in order to compensate for potential errors in demand forecasts and risks associated with supply. The design of receiving facilities should consider equipment compatibility for differing gas resources. In terms of LNG importing, shipping fleets should be controlled by China in order to guarantee freight capacity for spot trading and short-term purchases. In addition, surplus freight capacity can be utilized for third party transactions to maximize benefits.