灰色理论在城市年用电量预测中的应用

Application of the Grey Theory in Forecasting City Annual Electricity Consumption

研究了灰色预测GM(1,1)模型及其几种改进模型在城市年用电量预测中的应用 .以实际算例为基础 ,分析了几种模型的预测结果并进行比较 .结果表明 :不同的改进模型预测的精度不同 ,所有改进后的模型比基本模型预测的精度高、误差小 .并经不同的算例分析得出 :不同变化规律的负荷应该用不同的改进模型 .

This paper studies the application of the grey forecasting GM(1.1) and some improved models in annual electricity consumption forecasting in a city. Based on an example, comparing the forecasting results of the models, it is found that different improved models have different forecasting results, and the results of all improved models are more accurate than those of the primary model, different improved models should be applied to the load of different varing patterns.