应用灰色理论研究南京市城市化进程对耕地数量的影响

Study on Cultivated Land Reduction in the Course of Nanjing's Urbanizations with Gray Theory

利用灰色系统理论的关联度分析及预测模型 ,研究了南京市十年来城市化过程中耕地数量的变化 ,分析了影响耕地数量变化的社会因子 ,并对南京今后耕地数量的变化进行了预测 .通过本研究 ,发现所有因子中各郊县人口对耕地数量的变化影响最大 ,其次是全市非农业人口数 .

This paper discusses some social factors which influence cultivated land quantity and predicts the area of cultivated land in the future in Nanjing. It researches the cultivated land quantity change in the process of Nanjing urbanizations in last decade by using Gray correlation analysis and Gray predictable way. From this discussion we find that the population of the suburbs is the most important factors to cultivated land quantity change among all factors and the nonagricultural population is the secondary. This discussion can provide some guidances for city planning and cultivated land sustainable developing in Nanjing.