人民币长期钉住美元的现实弊端

The Existing Disadvantages of the RMB's Pegging to Dollar

在国际金融市场动荡的情况下,旨在稳定汇率的钉住美元的政策使得人民币随美元对其他外币的整体比价大幅波动,人民币名义和实际有效汇率不稳。长期钉住美元的政策,使我国失去了汇率政策工具,造成了汇率目标与包括就业和物价稳定等在内的根本性经济目标冲突;在内部或外部经济环境发生不良变化、市场预期与现实汇率水平发生偏差的情况下,套汇、骗汇、逃汇等资本外逃现象以及更严重的投机攻击行为就有可能发生。未来我国应选择更具弹性的汇率安排,在管理浮动制度下,应根据有效汇率变化对人民币汇率进行管理。

This paper investigates the fluctuation of the RMB's nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and the bad impacts on China's economy over the period from 1994 to 1999. The author argues that the policy of the RMB's pegging to dollar makes the NEER undulate heavily in international financial markets. This policy conflicts with the targets of our country's macroeconomic policies. Under a managed float our monetary authority should take account of the level of the RMB's NEER in future.