出口贸易带动经济增长假设在中国的进一步检验

Re-examining Export-led Growth Hypothesis in China

采用协整分析技术和 Granger因果关系检验方法 ,检验了出口带动经济增长 ( Export-led growth,ELG)假设在中国的情况 .结果表明 ,GDP、出口与贸易条件之间存在唯一协整关系 ,即三者之间存在长期的稳定均衡关系 ;存在出口增长到 GDP增长的单向 Granger因果关系 。

This paper tests the export-led growth hypothesis by using approaches of co-integration techniques and Grange-causality test in China .It is found that there exists a unique co-integration relationship among GDP, exports and terms of trade ,and there is a unidirectional Granger-causality from exports growth to economic growth ,it illustrates that the export led-growth hypothesis is right in China.