中国1901-2000年人间鼠疫动态规律

Dynamic laws of human plague in China during 1901-2000

目的 研究中国 190 1- 2 0 0 0年人间鼠疫动态规律。方法 建立人间鼠疫动态的自回归模型。结果 在 2 0世纪 ,人间鼠疫病例为 116 7379例 ,死亡 10 38970例。分别得到了人间鼠疫病例动态的自回归模型Arima(2 ,1,0 )和死亡病例动态的自回归模型 Arima(3,1,0 )。结论 在 190 1- 196 0年 ,人间鼠疫病例主要集中在福建、广东、内蒙古、吉林、云南、黑龙江、台湾、陕西、山西省 (自治区 ) ;196 1- 2 0 0 0年主要集中在云南、青海省 ,西藏自治区、贵州省。在 2 0 0 1- 2 0 0 2年 ,人间鼠疫病例发生的趋势是上升的 。

Objective To studied on dynamic laws of the human plague in China during 1901-2000.Methods The autoregressive models of human plague dynamics were set up.Results Human plague cases and dead were 1 167 379 and 1 038 970,respectively.The dynamic models ARIMA(2,1,0) of the human plague cases and ARIMA(3,1,0) of the dead were obtained, respectively.Conclusions The human plague cases were mainly located in Fujian, Guangdong, Neimenggu, Jilin, Yunnan, Heilongjiang, Taiwan, Shaanxi and Shanxi province (Autonomous Region) in 1901-1960, and in Yunnan, Qinghai, Xizang and Guizhou province (Autonomous Region) in 1961-2000. The general trends on the cases of human plague are increase and of the dead are relative stable from 2001 to 2002.