一种新的时间序列预报方法及其应用

A NEW FORECASTING METHOD OF TIME SERIES AND ITS APPLICATION

本文叙述了作者提出的时间序列预报方法的基本原理,介绍了这一方法在应用过程中的发展及在实际部门应用的情况,其中包括异常旱涝灾害预报及方法的改进等最新成果。

In this paper an outline is given for the new forecasting method of time series proposed by the author previously and the development of the method and its application to meteorological and hydrological services and other sectors of the national economy are described. Especially, the new results on the forecast of anomalous disasters of droughts and floods and the improvement in the method are also shown.