果树干周生长预测模型的研究

Study on Trunk Girth Growth Model of Fruit Tree

生长模型是定量研究果树干周生长过程的有效手段。果树干周生长规律常用Logistic方程、Mitscherlich方程、三参数和四参数的Richards方程、三角函数方程来模拟。笔者首次用拟Weibull方程模拟果树干周的生长规律 ,结果表明 ,Weibull方程达到了与果树干周最佳拟合的效果 ,同时 ,该方法可先给定由实际情况 (如立地条件等 )所确定的干周生长的最大值 ,这使得在研究中可以更好地预测果树将来的干周增长。另外 ,考虑到因实际情况差异所造成的初始干周不同这种普遍现象及其引起的生长过程的差异 ,笔者直接引入与单株树体有关的基准干周作为参数 ,建立了与实际生长情况相结合的干周生长模型 。

Growth model was an efficient way to study the growth process of some factors of plants quantitatively. Trunk girth growth of the fruit tree was studied by means of Logistic equation, Mitscherlich equation. Richards equation with three parameters and four parameters, Tricorn function equation and Weibull equation in this paper. The results showed that Weibull equation was the most suitable and could become the other theoretical equations. The maximum trunk girth of fruit trees can be given in advance when Weibull equation was used, and it was even more corresponding to reality. In addition, a trunk girth growth model with real trunk girth of fixed age as a parameter was discussed in the paper. This kind of growth model can calculate trunk girth growth of fruit tree.