交通流统计分布密度函数优度拟合方法研究

Study of Optimal Fitting Method for Probability Density Function of Traffic Flow

交通流统计分布函数的形式具有多样性 ,选择一个具体的分布去拟合调查数据常常是困难的 ,因而至今在实践中仍未见使用通用方法。为此 ,对简便地产生概率密度函数的统一方法进行了研究 :分析了最大熵方法 ,并提出另外一种算法———最佳平方逼近法 ,研究了两种交通工程实践中产生概率密度函数的统一方法及其实用的数值算法。理论例题仿真与实例计算验证表明 ,两方法和程序是合理有效的。

Probability density function of traffic flow varies with different survey data. It is difficult to find a probability density function fitting for all kinds of traffic survey data. Thus an ordinary method of generating probability density function is greatly important for traffic researcher and engineer. In this paper , the authors analyzed the problem from the viewpoint of maximum entropy method and derived a practical formula based on least square approximation principle and its algorithm. The two methods are proved to be really effective in theoretical simulation and practice examination.