福建春季(3～4月)降水异常的特征分析

Characteristic analysis of anomalous precipitation (March to April) in Fujian

本文取全省 2 5个代表站 1 960～ 1 999年 3～ 4月的降水资料和北半球 50 0hPa高度资料、北太平洋海温的月平均资料为素材 ,首先标定降水的异常指数和异常年例 ,其次应用小波分析、自相关、功率谱和周期分析等方法揭示降水的演变规律 ,最后分析异常降水的 50 0hPa环流背景和海温特征 ,所得结果可为我省春季降水的短期气候预测提供线索 .

The precipitation data during March to April at 25 representative meteorological stations in Fujian Province, 500hPa height data in northern hemisphere and monthly mean sea temperature in north Pacific from 1960 to 1999 were selected. Firstly the anomalous index and ano- malous year of precipitation were defined.Secondly, using statistical methods of wavelet analysis,autocorrelation analysis,power spectrum and periodic analysis, the variation regularity of precipitation was revealed. Finally, the features of 500hPa circulation and sea temperature of anomoly precipitation were analyzed.The results may provide leads for the short-term climate forecast of precipitation in Fujian Province during springtime.