基于粮食生产时空特征的粮食安全保障(英文)

Food Security Based on the Spatial-temporal Feature of Grain Production

中国粮食生产的波动性一直备受学界关注,随着中国工业化和城镇化建设进程的推进,粮食生产的时空不稳定性对于保障中国的粮食安全具有重要的影响。笔者采用平均值和变异系数模型对1980～2006年中国31个省粮食生产的时空变化特征进行了分析,旨在为未来中国粮食生产的宏观战略布局和决策提供参考。1980～2006年,中国粮食生产总量增加,省际差异较大,按省平均粮食产量和各省粮食产量的变异系数将粮食生产的时间序列划分为3个阶段,依次为低产高变阶段、高产低变阶段和高产高变阶段;结合各省粮食生产水平和年际变化特征,以粮食产量和变异系数的平均值为标准,将各省的粮食生产情况分为4种类型,即低产高变型、低产低变型、高产低变型和高产高变型;从各农业产区看,各农业区整体粮食生产能力随时间具有稳定性,但区域差异较大,各农业区内部省域单元之间的粮食生产水平差异较大,具有空间上的不均匀性,表明中国粮食生产具有时空上的不稳定性。最后,从不同层面针对不同农业区和省份提出了在经济全球化背景下保障国家粮食安全的相关建议:①针对各农业区,应从国家宏观层面上制定相应的政策;②各省要根据该省粮食生产的特点制定相应的农业政策。

We use the mean value and variation coefficient model to analyze the spatial-temporal feature of grain production in 31 provinces from the year 1980 to 2006.Time series of grain production is divided into 3 stages according to the average yield and the variation coefficient of grain production in provincial level,which are the lower yield and higher variation stage,the higher yield and lower variation stage and the higher yield and higher variation stage.We classify the grain production of each province into four types according to the grain production level and the annual variation characteristics:the lower yield and higher variation type,the lower yield and lower variation type,the higher yield and lower variation type and the higher yield and higher variation type.The grain production capacity in each agricultural area is relatively stable over time,but they are quite different among the areas.Grain production levels among the provinces in each agricultural region are obviously different with spatial heterogeneity,indicating that grain production in China is not stable both in time and space.Finally,this paper put forward some related countermeasures and proposals.