中国食糖进口量影响因素的实证分析(英文)

Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Sugar Imports in China

中国是世界食粮市场的重要参与者,在世界食粮市场中,既是食粮生产大国也是消费大国。笔者首先分析了影响中国食粮进口量的6个因素:居民收入水平、食粮产量、食粮的消费需求、食粮价格水平、替代消费品以及汇率波动,并以此为基础,建立了多元线性回归模型,实证研究了这6个因素对中国食粮进口量的影响,模型回归结果说明模型拟合度较高,食粮进口量与解析自变量的线性关系显著,但运用方差扩大因子法检验模型时发现存在多重共线性问题。为此,笔者通过反复进行线性拟合、剔除未通过t检验的变量,对回归方程进行了优化,修正后的模型较显著,各变量与被解析变量高度相关,多重共线性已经基本消除,不存在自相关和异方差问题。优化模型结果表明:人均收入已不是影响中国食粮进口量的主要原因,中国人均GDP对食粮进口量影响不显著;产量和消费量是影响食粮进口量的主要因素,食粮产量与进口量呈显著负相关,食粮消费量与进口量呈显著正相关;汇率变化将是影响未来食粮进口量的重要因素,它与食粮进口量呈显著负相关;食粮替代品对食粮的替代作用已经逐渐弱化;价格对食粮进口量的影响较小,不是影响中国食粮进口量的决定性因素。

We study the factors influencing the sugar imports in China.A multivariate linear regression model for quantitative analysis is established,and the model is researched with multicollinearity treatment,autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity test.Research result shows that the per capita income and price fluctuation are not the main factors affecting the sugar import in China,but the domestic sugar production and consumption are the key factors.The substitution effect of sugar substitute has been weakening relatively,exchange rate should be an important factor on sugar imports in the future.Finally,suggestions on how to improve the pattern of the import trade and to enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese sugar are put forward.