中国耕地保有量多时间尺度分析(英文)

Multi-time Scale Analysis on the Cultivated Land Quantity in China

经验模型分解(EMD)方法一种可以很好地处理非平稳、非线性信号的方法,也是目前提取数据序列趋势的较好方法之一。简述了EMD方法的具体步骤,并将EMD方法应用于1949年以来中国耕地保有量波动及其驱动力的多时间尺度分析,揭示了耕地保有量的波动规律,同时根据分解出来的不同时间尺度的波动对中国未来耕地保有量波动趋势进行定性预测,一方面为建立耕地保有量预测模型提供了建模依据,为耕地安全预警提供一定的分析,另一方面可为土地政策的制定提出建议。研究结果表明,中国耕地保有量在未来一段时间内继续下降的趋势将不可避免,且短时间内可认为基本呈指数形式下降。从34年周期的波动形态来看,未来5～10年耕地保有量将继续下降,但从更大的时间尺度57年周期的波动形态来看,未来5～10年耕地保有量将逐步度过波谷阶段,随着国家对耕地快速减少问题的重视和一系列土地调控政策的颁布与实施,形势将有所好转。因此提出几点建议:①加强土地利用总体规划中耕地保有量的研究和控制;②加强土地宏观调控的持续性和持久性;③强化各级行政领导耕地保护职责。

This paper briefly introduces the concrete steps of EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) method, and then applies EMD method into the multi-time scale analysis on fluctuation of cultivated land quantity and its driving force in China since 1949. This paper also reveals the fluctuation law in the amount of cultivated land quantity. At the same time, based on the fluctuation of different time scales, qualitative forecast on the fluctuation trend of cultivated land quantity in China in future is carried out in order to offer references for establishing prediction model of cultivated land quantity. Research result shows that downward trend of cultivated land quantity is inevitable in China in the future, showing a basic form of an exponential decline during a short period of time. However, situation will be improved with the implementing of a series of land-control policies and paying attention to the issue of rapid reduction of cultivated land. Thus, several suggestions are put forward: ① strengthen the research and control on the cultivated land quality in the overall land use planning; ② enhance the continuity and durability of land macro-control; ③ intensify the protection responsibility of cultivated land for leadership at all levels.