基于逻辑斯蒂方程的耕地需求预测——以浙江省为例(英文)

Prediction of the Cultivated Land Demand Based on Logistic Equation——A Case of Zhejiang Province,China

介绍了中国浙江省的区域概况和逻辑斯蒂方程的内涵。根据1978～2006年相关统计数据,分析了浙江省耕地面积的动态变化及其驱动因素。①1978年以来,浙江省耕地面积呈明显的波动减少趋势;②有两个阶段耕地面积减少较快,即1984～1988年和1990～1995年,在此期间,大量耕地被非农建设所占用;③经济发展、农业科技进步、人口增长因素是耕地面积变化的主要驱动因素,人地矛盾日益尖锐,耕地负荷越来越重;④耕地累计减少面积随时间变化的曲线呈"S"形,符合逻辑斯蒂方程。运用逻辑斯蒂方程对浙江省未来耕地变化情况进行了预测。预测结果显示,至2020年,浙江省耕地累计减少面积将不再增加,届时耕地累计减少面积为9.091万hm2,浙江省耕地面积将稳定在149.824万hm2水平线上或在该水平线上下波动。研究表明:随着产业结构的高级化,城市化、工业化对耕地的蚕食并非不断增加,而是将在某一阶段趋于停止;随着科技进步和土地投入的增加,为保证粮食安全所需的耕地面积将不断减少;城市化、工业化的用地需求与粮食安全的用地需求是可以兼顾的。

Regional situation of Zhejiang Province and connotation of Logistic Equation are introduced.According to the relevant statistical data from 1978 to 2006,dynamic change and its driving forces of cultivated land area in Zhejiang Province are analyzed.Firstly,since the year 1978,cultivated land area has shown a significant fluctuant decreasing trend in Zhejiang Province,China.Secondly,cultivated land at the two stages of 1984-1988 and 1990-1995 decreases sharply.Large area of cultivated land is occupied by non-agricultural construction.Thirdly,economic development,population growth and agricultural scientific and technological development are the main driving forces.Contradiction between land and human beings becomes more acute;and the load of cultivated land becomes increasingly heavy.Fourthly,cumulative reduction area of cultivated land changes with time,showing a 'S'-shaped curve and according with the Logistic Equation.Change of cultivated land of Jiangsu Province in future is forecasted by Logistic Equation.Result shows that the cumulative reduction area of cultivated land will stop increasing until the year 2020 with the total reduction area of 90.91 thousand hectares.Cultivated area of Zhejiang Province will either be stable at the level of 1 498.24 thousand hectares or will fluctuate around it.With the development of industrial structure,encroachment of urbanization and industrialization on cultivated land is not ever-increasing,but will tend to stop at a certain stage.Overall consideration on land use demand for food safety and for urbanization and industrialization may become possible with the advancement of technology and the increase of land inputs.