四川现代农业进程研究(英文)

Process of Modern Agriculture in Sichuan Province

首先,参考相关文献,指出现代农业是农业发展到一定阶段的产物,其评价标准会随着经济的发展而逐步提高,并且不同的国家、不同的地区根据自己资源禀赋会采取不同的实现形式。其次,参照以往指标体系,根据指标体系建立的科学性、充分性、可控制性、可操作性、可比性原则,建立四川现代农业评价指标体系,采用层次分析法,运用多人多准则对建立的指标体系进行权重计算。最后,依据1997～2007年四川现代农业的综合水平相关数据,采用综合指数法,计算出现阶段四川农业的发展水平,并用灰色预测法中的GM(1,1)模型对2008～2012年四川农业的发展趋势做出预测。结果表明,农业发展水平不断增加,但有些年份增长不均衡;在2012年,四川的现代农业发展水平可达到0.7642,虽还是处于初步实现阶段,但已经离基本实现阶段非常接近。

Based on relevant literatures,it is found out that modern agriculture is a product of agricultural development at a certain stage.On the one hand,modern agriculture develops with the improvement of economy;on the other hand,it has many realization forms.Different areas and countries can select their own realization forms according to the resource endowment.According to the index systems in the past,evaluation index system of modern agriculture in Sichuan Province is established based on the principles of controllability,operability,comparability and adequacy.Analytical Hierarchy Process is adopted to calculate the weigh of the established index system by multi-persons and multi-criteria.According to the comprehensive level of modern agricultural data in Sichuan Province in the years 1997-2007,Comprehensive Index Method is used to calculate the development level of Sichuan agriculture at present.And the development trend of Sichuan agriculture in the years 2008-2012 is forested by GM(1,1) model in Gray Forecasting Method.Result shows that level of agricultural development is improving,but shows uneven growth in some years.In the year 2012,development level of modern agriculture reaches 0.764 2 in Sichuan Province,which is still at initial implementation stage but is pretty close to the basic realization stage.