摘要
To study the dynamic changes of land use and predict the future land use scenarios based on the current land use,this paper uses Cellular Automata- Markov( CA- Markov) model to simulate the landscape pattern in 2030. The results show that in the study area during the period 1980- 2005,grassland and construction land increased,and woodland increased slightly; waters and unused land decreased,and arable land underwent dramatic changes. The simulation precision of CA- Markov model is 87. 28%,indicating that the use of it for simulation is reliable. The land use of the study area will be changed greatly in the future. This method provides a reference for the regions to carry out land prediction,and the research results can provide a basis for the study of optimization of land.
To study the dynamic changes of land use and predict the future land use scenarios based on the current land use,this paper uses Cellular Automata- Markov( CA- Markov) model to simulate the landscape pattern in 2030. The results show that in the study area during the period 1980- 2005,grassland and construction land increased,and woodland increased slightly; waters and unused land decreased,and arable land underwent dramatic changes. The simulation precision of CA- Markov model is 87. 28%,indicating that the use of it for simulation is reliable. The land use of the study area will be changed greatly in the future. This method provides a reference for the regions to carry out land prediction,and the research results can provide a basis for the study of optimization of land.
基金
Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(41271159)
Engagement Fund of Xi'an University of Science and Technology(201103)
Doctor Startup Fund of Xi'an University of Science and Technology(2011QDJ036)
College Students' Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program of XUST(S13018)
