合肥市商品房价格增长的供求因素分析

An Analysis on Supply and Demand Factors of Price Rise inHefei Commercial Housing

从供给来看,合肥市土地供应量、土地出让金价格波动和土地增值税变动是价格波动的重要诱因。从需求来看城市化率、居民收入水平、替代品保障房供给有助于价格的平稳增长,但投资渠道狭窄和价格预期的正反馈机制是会造成商品房价格波动的重要诱因。因此,建议合肥市要完善土地供应制度,有效控制土地供应量;通过多渠道释放刚性住房需求;对二套以上房征收房产税;利用大数据等手段保证保障房、廉租房的公平分配,合理疏导刚性需求等举措防止商品房价格的过快增长。

The thesis examines the influential factors of the price rise in real estate in Hefei.From the viewpoint of supply,there are three important incentive reasons for the price rise such as the quantity of the land supply,the fluctuations of land transfer price and the changes in land value-added tax.From the demand point of view,the increasing rate of urbanization,income of the residents,and the supply of alternative low-income housing help stabilize the smooth growth of price.However,the positive feedback mechanism between the narrow channels of financing and the expectations of the real estate price is the most important is conducive to the price rise.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the land supply system and effectively control the land supply quantity so as to satisfy the rigid housing demand through multichannels.In order to prevent the fast growing price,it is also proposed that the property tax be imposed on over two sets of houses,the fair allocation of low-income and low-rent housing be guaranteed by utilizing the big data system and rationally guiding the consumption.