用于CT配置数量预测的滞后计量模型研究

Study on the time-lag econometrics model for CT planning

目的 :探讨并筛选与CT配置数量相关的社会经济、地理、人口、卫生等方面的统计指标 ,并在此基础上建立各省市区CT配置总量的预测模型 ,为卫生行政主管部门制定设备配置规划提供决策依据。方法 :使用多元逐步回归的方法 ,筛选与区域内CT数量相关的因素建立数学模型。结果 :共筛选了医生数、是否为西部地区、人口密度、是否为中部地区、县级行政区划数、职工人均工资和城镇社区服务设施数等 7个指标进入模型。结论 :本模型的建立无论在理论方面还是在实践方面 ,都具有重大意义 。

The objectives of this paper are to find the related factors influencing CT distribution to establish an econometrics model for the CT planning in provinces to assist policymakers in high-tech medical devices decision-making process. Method Multiple stepwise regression model was used to analyze the related social, economic, demographic, geographic and health factors. Result the model revealed that there were seven factors related with the distribution of CT. Those are total amount of doctors, western region province or not, population density, middleregion province or not, total amount of counties, average salary for workers and number of urban community service facilities. Conclusions It can be served as a planning tool for the policymakers in developing CT plan as well as a new methodology in resources allocation.