1991～2000年宁波市2型糖尿病死亡趋势分析

Analysis for the mortality trend of type Ⅱ diabetes mellitus in Ningbo from 1991 to 2000

目的 分析宁波市 2型糖尿病死亡及变动趋势。方法 采用居民病伤死亡原因年报数据和1997年糖尿病调查数据 ,用GM ( 1,1)预测。结果 内分泌营养代谢免疫疾病的死亡率 10年间增长约 1倍 ,其中糖尿病占 80 %以上 ;糖尿病患病率城区高于农村 ;糖耐量低下 (IGT)患病率城乡间无明显差异 ,但农村居民IGT患病的潜在危险性非常高 ,尤其是女性 ;预测到 2 0 10年糖尿病死亡率城乡均超过 35 /10万 ,城区增长幅度男性 ( 3 91倍 )高于女性 ( 1 39倍 ) ,农村将增长 3 72倍 ,农村女性增长尤快 ( 5 16倍 )。结论 迫切需要政府行为来强化社区卫生服务单位的防病作用 ,对农村社区工作要加以侧重。

Objective To analyse the mortality and its time trend of type Ⅱ Diabetes Mellitus(DM)in Ningbo.Methods The data from the annals based on the medical death certificates and an epidemiological study on type Ⅱ DM in 1997 were used.The Grey Model(1 , 1)was introduced to forecast the mortality trends.Results The mortality of endocrine,nutritious,and metabolic diseases increased by 100% during 10 years,in which DM occupied over 80%.The prevalence rate of DM in urban district was higher than that in rural district.No significance was found between urban and rural districts in prevalence rate of IGT,but rural residents were at higher potential risk for IGT,especially in females.By the year 2010,the DM mortality was expected over 35 per one hundred thousand in urban and rural district.In urban,the male DM mortality would increase by 3 91 times,higher than that of the females.In rural,the total DM would increase by 3 72 times,especially 5 16 times for the females.Conclusions The effective activities by government are needed to enhance the function of community health service units,especially in rural area.