“三元悖论”与我国对外开放阶段货币政策的运用

Trilemma and Chinese Monetary Policy Operating Model Under Open Economy

克鲁格曼“三元悖论”认为 ,一国只能在货币政策独立、汇率稳定和资本的完全流动三个目标中选择两个 ,不可能同时实现三个目标。我国现阶段在这“三元”中选择的是汇率稳定和货币政策独立 ,同时未完全放弃资本完全流动目标 (人民币只实现了经常项目下可兑换 ,不开放资本帐户 ) ,因此货币政策独立性仍然受到一定程度的削弱。我国加入WTO ,中央银行如何保持货币政策独立性将成为一个重要的问题 ,同时货币政策也将从以内部的均衡目标为主转变为内外部均衡目标兼顾 ,相应地必须建立适应开放经济条件的货币政策操作模式。

As the 'trilemma' (Mundell triangle) said, we can just choose two of the three macroeconomic aims: independence of the monetary policy, stabilization of the exchange rate and completely flowage of the capital. As China has chosen independence of the monetary policy and stabilization of the exchange rate, not completely abandoned flowage of the capital, the independence of Chinese monetary policy has been ruined. After China join WTO, how to maintain independence of Chinese monetary policy, how to choose the aims of monetary policy and how to constitute its operating model under open economy will be very important.