江苏高等教育发展规模的分析与预测

An Analysis and Forecast of the Size of Higher Education in Jiangsu Province

江苏省正在推进高等教育大众化 ,其高等教育规模的发展 ,不仅受其经济发展速度的制约 ,而且受到教育资源现状、教育投入力度、学龄段人口增长等非经济因素的影响。要使江苏高等教育与国民经济协调发展 ,就必须对其经济发展状况和各种非经济因素进行定量分析 ,建立相关的数学模型 ,从而对高等教育的发展规模做出合理预测 。

The popularization of higher education is on its way in Jiangsu Province. However, the development of the size of higher education of the province is not only restricted by the speed of the economic development but also affected by some non-economic factors such as the available education resources, the amount of appropriation for education and the population within usual higher education age. To coordinate the development of higher education and national economy, it is necessary to analyze the economic condition as well as the non-economic factors, and make a convincing forecast of the development of the size of higher education, thus offering a reliable basis for the government to make a strategic decision for the development of higher education.